TOKYO – The stars have finally aligned for Mr Shigeru Ishiba, a man once branded as a “traitor” for having once quit the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and whose leadership ambitions were written off as he publicly feuded with kingmakers.
But he pulled off a come-from-behind victory on Sept 27 to prevail in his fifth attempt at the top job, and will be sworn in as Japan’s next prime minister on Oct 1 with his Cabinet to be named on the same day.
The 67-year-old benefited from circumstance. Party factions, along which lines MPs used to vote, have mostly been relegated to history. Meanwhile, amid the LDP’s most damaging scandal in years involving a political slush fund that implicated one in five MPs, lawmakers may bank on his status as a maverick outsider to win over an incensed public.
Political observers, however, see his position as wobbly, and believe he could be the latest in a line of revolving door prime ministers if he were to make a misstep.
While the LDP will likely put up a show of unity in the wake of its most bruising party presidential election in years, with a record nine candidates in the running, Sophia University political scientist Koichi Nakano told The Straits Times that the party could descend into “civil war”.
Having received 189 votes from lawmakers in the run-off, Mr Ishiba’s thin margin of victory over runner-up Sanae Takaichi – the 63-year-old conservative Economic Security Minister, who received 173 votes from MPs – shows “the degree to which the party is internally divided”, he said.
“Ishiba is going to have a very hard time governing,” said Dr Nakano, noting that the veteran lawmaker, who entered politics in 1986, has long been on the periphery of LDP politics.
“He does not really have a team. How he will form a Cabinet and how he will manage the party – particularly his opponents – are going to be make or break for him.
“Where is he going to put people like Takaichi? How is he going to co-opt some of his rivals – or shut them out?” asked Dr Nakano, a visiting scholar at the Weatherhead programme on US-Japan relations at Harvard University.
On Sept 27, Mr Ishiba struck a contrite figure before the run-off vote as he apologised for his past outbursts and public feuds, including with the late former prime minister Shinzo Abe. “There were many areas where I fell short, and I may have hurt the feelings of many people and caused unpleasant experiences,” he said.
Yet, can this fledgling effort to unify the LDP be adequate when the result was a stunning upset for Ms Takaichi, who had surged ahead in the first round and was heavily favoured to win?
That Mr Ishiba, a politician who has been at the party’s fringes, flipped the table on “establishment” LDP candidate Ms Takaichi, could drive resentment within the party, experts said.
While Ms Takaichi would have made history as Japan’s first female prime minister had she won, experts note the irony that she represents the LDP’s past rather than a progressive future.
She opposes gender equality policies, and wants to reinstate Abe-era negative interest rates, and her hardline conservatism and hawkish policies would have undone progress made by outgoing Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in economic or social policies.
She also embodies the factional politics that thrived under her mentor, Mr Abe. Her defeat marks a humiliation for her key backer, Mr Taro Aso, the former premier, whose influence as a party kingmaker might be on the wane in comparison with rival Yoshihide Suga, another former prime minister, who has advocated for more centrist policies.
Will Shigeru Ishiba’s tenure as Japan’s next PM be short-lived?
