Despite the sizeable arsenal of missiles and rockets that Hezbollah still maintains, its fighters have not fired a huge number into central Israel.
US officials say one reason is that a series of Israeli attacks, culminating Sept 27 in the airstrike that killed Nasrallah outside Beirut, have severely damaged the group’s command-and-control structure, leaving few senior people to give orders to lower-level fighters.
The group could also be waiting for a signal from Iranian officials, who had helped build up the arsenal as a deterrent against any possible Israeli assault on Iran, officials say. If Hezbollah uses up most of the rest of its arsenal and is not able to replenish it, that deterrent disappears.
And Hezbollah might prefer for Iran itself to retaliate, with its much more potent arsenal. In April, Iran fired more than 300 drones and missiles at Israel in retaliation for a deadly attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria. Israel, the United States and partner nations in the region shot down almost all of those.
On the night of Oct 1 in the Middle East, the Iranian military fired ballistic missiles at Israel. Air raid sirens sounded across the country, and residents saw defensive interceptor missiles flying through the skies. Iran’s mission to the United Nations said on social media that the attack was in response to “terrorist acts” by Israel that had violated Iran’s “sovereignty”.
Some Israeli and US officials said they thought Israel had successfully established deterrence with Iran through a strike that Israel carried out after that April barrage from Iran. In the follow-up assault, Israel damaged one or more S-300 antiaircraft batteries that the Iranian military had placed around the ancient city of Isfahan, US officials said.
Such a strike, coupled with the Israeli assassination in July of Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, while he was in Tehran, showed that Israel could attack in the heart of Iran – and possibly kill Iranian leaders.
Some US officials stress that the top ranks of Hezbollah have been crippled by the sudden Israeli campaign. Its leadership has been decimated, not just by the killing of Nasrallah, but also by the pager explosions and other attacks that killed and injured top and midlevel leaders over the last three weeks.
The entire special operations command of Hezbollah, known as the Radwan Force, was wiped out in the Sept 20 airstrike that killed Ibrahim Akil, effectively Hezbollah’s chief of military operations, in a southern suburb of Beirut, US officials say.
On Sept 30, Naim Qassem, the acting leader of Hezbollah after Nasrallah’s death, said contingency plans had been in place to ensure alternate commanders could step up if anything happened to the group’s leaders.
The heaviest recent wave of Israeli airstrikes hit 1,300 targets Sept 23, including sites with long-range cruise missiles, heavy rockets and drones, said Daniel Hagari, an Israeli military spokesperson.
Still, US officials say it is an open question if Israel’s operations can be turned into a strategic gain. How long Israel remains in southern Lebanon, how deeply Iran engages in counterattacks, what Hezbollah does to respond and what political forces seize influence in Beirut will all be a factor in the long-term outcome.
Israel carried out a violent and failed occupation of Lebanon from 1982 to 2000, one that gave birth to Hezbollah.
Some US officials view the situation, particularly over the long term, with skepticism. They do not believe a military campaign in Lebanon can set back Hezbollah for long.
The group has a tunnel infrastructure that is impossible to destroy absent a long-term presence in the country, which Israeli officials say they are reluctant to reoccupy. The tunnels are dug deep into the rock under southern Lebanon and are difficult to hit with airstrikes. Parts of the network are big enough for large military equipment to move through.
These more pessimistic US officials say that even if Nasrallah was a singular and charismatic leader, the midlevel and even senior military commanders will be more easily replaced.
While Nasrallah appeared to have become wary about ordering big attacks on Israel after the widespread destruction in the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, a new leader might not have the same sense of caution. NYTIMES
Israel has destroyed half of Hezbollah’s arsenal, US and Israeli officials say
